Kerala: Deaths during lockdown rise 149%

Kerala reported 488 Covid-19 deaths and 2,67,002 cases from May 5-12 -- the week in which the state went for a complete lockdown -- as against 1,214 deaths and 1,08,165 cases from June 2-9, marking a 149% rise in weekly deaths and 59% drop in cases. Kerala also reduced testing by 22% last week when compared with the week ending May 12 and health experts are drawing a correlation between decreased testing and increased mortality.Kerala's Covid trend is in total contrast with the national trend of drop in both weekly cases and deaths. In India, the 28-day moving growth rate (MGR) of weekly positive cases dropped by 72% and deaths by 23%."If a state or a district has a 28-day MGR below 10%, then it is considered as a relatively safe zone. Kerala's mortality 28-MGR from May 12 to June 9 is 72%, which is of serious concern. During this 28-day period, 4,384 people have died, nearly three-fourths of the total Covid deaths in the state and at a time when Kerala was in complete lockdown," said Mysore Sanjeev, convener of Project Jeevan Raksha which puts out monthly Covid projections for each state.Sanjeev attributed the high mortality in Kerala mainly to the large number of infected people -- not being tested, ending up with false negative reports or testing late. "Kerala has tested over 50% of its population, largely by the unreliable rapid antigen test (RAT) which has false negative reports as high as 40%. On top of it, the average testing per week dropped by one-fifth. During May 5-12, Kerala carried out 9.5 lakh tests whereas during June 2-9, only 7.5 lakh tests were conducted. This gave a illusory satisfaction of drop in caseload," he said.Making up for undercountingThe official Covid toll has been a contentious issue in the state, with public health experts and even the opposition demanding a revision of guidelines. The state government has decided to re-examine the Covid toll now and it has developed a software to publish district-wise deaths based on the treating doctor's report. "The official numbers can no longer be relied on. Of the 206 deaths declared on Sunday, 70 happened in May and18 in April. The government is manipulating the figures -- to make up for the initial undercounting of Covid deaths, the health department is adding them on days like Sunday when the mortality numbers are low. (If the 88 old deaths were not added, the mortality on Sunday would have been 118). This is probably done to ensure that the numbers are not high on any given day," said Dr Arun N M, internal medicine expert who has been analyzing the Covid trends in Kerala.There is also a growing demand to analyse each Covid death in detail. "The details of each death are not yet available in the public domain and hence it is very difficult to say what are the main causes for increased Covid deaths here," said Dr A Sukumaran, former state epidemiologist who came out of retirement to work at the Wayanad Covid control room.

from Economic Times https://bit.ly/3gsqXJO
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