How India can leverage Covid to displace China

By David M SloanAs India’s attention cautiously shifts from bending the coronavirus curve downwards to rebuilding the economy, the Narendra Modi government’s primary economic focus has, rightly, been on short-term, stop-gap stabilisation measures. But the corona crisis has also presented India with an unexpected, longer-horizon opportunity to expand its manufacturing base and play a larger role in revamped global supply chains. Is India prepared to compete to fill the vacuum created by a widely acknowledged global over-dependence on China?The prime minister thinks so. In a LinkedIn blog post on Sunday, he exhorted India to “rise to that occasion” so the country can become “the global nerve centre of … multinational supply chains in the post Covid-19 world.” India now needs to chart and follow a bold, creative roadmap to accomplish this national goal.With its economy already struggling pre-pandemic India now faces its lowest growth in 40 years, a possible doubling of its fiscal deficit, and job losses that, by one estimate, could exceed 100 million. Crisis often begets opportunity, however, and India should now move quickly to take advantage of a longer term opening spawned by the sudden but inevitable global rush to reduce economic dependence on China. If India wants to be a serious player in this competition – while also fulfilling perennially urgent goals of boosting manufacturing and creating jobs – a number of fundamental changes in policy and mindset are necessary, particularly regarding foreign investment.India has long and loudly trumpeted its embrace of foreign investment, but the truth is that for many Indian policy makers of all stripes, the acronym MNC, short for multinational corporation, is still close to a four letter word. All countries show favouritism towards their domestic investors to some extent, but few practise as little as they preach about foreign investment as India. But India needs foreign investors – corporates that bring capital, technology and markets with greenfield projects as well as private equity that funds capex for existing and startup Indian companies – now more than ever.Here are five steps that India should take to seize manufacturing and supply chain opportunities that the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated:First, the PM should use his bully pulpit to reinforce Sunday’s message, clearly signalling international as well as domestic audiences that India is eager and is ready to step up as global trade and investment flows shift. In announcing a Make in Global India (MGI) initiative, he need not single out glaring overdependence on China – others can and will. Rather, he should emphasise India’s intention to adjust its policies to compete aggressively for investment in the emerging international manufacturing and supply chain architecture.Second, he should appoint a Make in Global India special envoy as his personal representative to reach out to global companies that are reshaping their supply chains. This special envoy should be a reputed leader from India’s private sector with deep knowledge of global markets and how New Delhi works; someone like RC Bhargava of Maruti, for example. Initial outreach should be as much of a listening exercise as a sales pitch, so the government understands with more precision what foreign investors need and expect in order to choose India over countries like Vietnam and Myanmar – and to avoid simply onshoring new investment.Third, the Make in Global India initiative should specifically target Japanese and US companies. Japan has just announced a massive programme for Japanese companies to shift production from China, including $2.2 billion in incentives to move manufacturing to third countries like India. As for US corporates, a mid-February, pre-pandemic survey of American CFOs by the UBS Evidence Lab separately found that 76% of the respondents have either started diversifying manufacturing away from China or are planning to because of protectionist policies. The same survey also found that India is among the top potential destinations in Asia for this manufacturing shift.US secretary of state Mike Pompeo told journalists last week that India and the US “want to mesh the supply chains … that are important for our national security.”Fourth, to provide clear signposts of its seriousness, the government should immediately roll out policy initiatives and make some iron-clad pledges on foreign investment. These should include: (a) an end to the “tax terrorism” that has long tarnished India’s international reputation; (b) introduction in Parliament of overdue labour market and land acquisition reforms that are key to attract significantly increased FDI; and (c) a symbolically potent commitment to abide forthrightly by international arbitration decisions, including on pending cases involving Cairn Energy, Vodafone, Nissan Motor, and Deutsche Telekom that the government almost certainly will lose.Fifth, the government should stop publicly belittling foreign investors as well as bilateral/ multilateral trade and investment agreements. In January, a day after Amazon announced its intention to invest a fresh $1 billion in India, the Union commerce and industry minister implied that the company indulges in predatory pricing and unfair trade practices, asserting “It is not as if they are doing a great favour to India when they invest.”Just as Modi warned that India would be pushed back 21 years if it did not manage the original 21 day lockdown, it may be another 21 years before India again has this type of strategic opportunity to lift its economy.The writer is a principal and South Asia lead at The Scowcroft Group, an international business consultancy

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